Methodology & Sources
StraitWatch combines source-linked public reporting, dated reference data, explicitly selected assumptions, and reproducible model calculations. The interface keeps those origins separate so a modeled result is not presented as an observed fact.
What the labels mean
- DATA: a dated published observation or source-linked report. Publication is evidence that a claim was made, not independent confirmation that every claim is correct.
- MODEL: a value calculated from the displayed scenario inputs and documented formulas. It is conditional output, not a forecast.
- JUDGMENT: an analyst-selected weight, threshold, scenario definition, or other assumption that a reader should be able to inspect and challenge.
From reporting to a scenario
- Server-side collectors retrieve relevant public reporting and dated reference observations.
- Duplicate records are removed and context-aware headline analysis may propose bounded indicator changes.
- Proposed changes remain distinct from the underlying source and require user or configured approval before they affect a scenario.
- The deterministic model calculates illustrative economic, shipping, regional, and relationship effects from the selected inputs.
- A reproducibly seeded simulation fan shows how paths vary under those assumptions. Its bands are model-conditional distributions, not measured outcome likelihoods.
Source families
The dashboard links each displayed report or external observation to its publisher. Runtime source families include public news indexes and publishers, official agency publications, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Federal Reserve Economic Data reference series, and attributed open mapping providers. The service links to reports and does not sell copied articles. Source availability can change, and a delayed or unavailable feed never converts a fallback value into a current observation.
- GDELT Project — public reporting index used by the source-update collector.
- U.S. EIA Brent series and FRED — dated economic reference observations.
- UCDP — optional candidate-event layer subject to strict date and location-precision gates.
- OpenStreetMap, CARTO, Natural Earth, Esri, and NASA GIBS — attributed reference geography and imagery.
Limits to keep in view
- Public reporting may be incomplete, delayed, revised, duplicated, or wrong.
- Automated headline analysis can interpret wording but does not verify a claim, read every full article, or establish a publisher's reliability.
- Scenario weights, elasticities, thresholds, and coupling coefficients are assumptions and may be wrong.
- An unexpected event may invalidate the model structure rather than merely move an input.
- Maps and route geometry are illustrative and must not be used for navigation, emergency response, or personal-safety decisions.
Inspect or challenge the work
Open the public dashboard to review current source links, indicator definitions, model explanations, and the full source register. For a factual correction or a disputed assumption, email admin@strait-watch.com with the page or panel, the specific statement or setting, and the strongest available supporting source.
Product scope
Only StraitWatch, the dedicated Strait of Hormuz lens, uses the Hormuz simulator. The other research areas, from conflict lenses and disease pages to World Power Balance, climate, food, and cyber, do not inherit its inputs or outputs.
The service uses public or properly attributed sources, does not access private or unauthorized data, and is not affiliated with a government, political party, campaign, brokerage, investment adviser, or news organization.